Peace with Syria: an expensive risk

Hafez Assad does not condescend to meet with Ehud Barak. His Foreign Minister will not shake his hand. Yet the Israeli prime minister does not insist on diplomatic protocol. In his quest for an agreement with the Syrian dictator he seems prepared to do anything, to say anything, and maybe even to give away everything. Someone not acquainted with recent Middle East history might think that Israel has been defeated, Syria has been victorious, Assad holds all the cards and Israel is in desperate straits. Never in the course of history have we seen such a reversal of roles. Surrealism reigns in Shepherdstown.To lend a measure of credibility to the absurd posture our prime minister has been assuming, he has put forth the claim that the alternative to an agreement with Assad is Syrian aggression against Israel and Scud missiles falling on Israel's cities. Moreover, according to him, it is only after Assad's demands have been met that Israel will be able to enjoy economic prosperity, unemployment will be eliminated, and the length of military service reduced. And if that were not enough, the US will presumably reward Israel with tens of billions of dollars and the latest in US weapons technology, thus making for a smaller but safer and richer State of Israel.

As for the presumed Syrian military threat, Tel Aviv University's Jaffe Center of Strategic Studies has just issued its annual Middle East Military Balance, reporting that the strategic balance between Israel and Syria has never been so tilted in Israel's favor and that Damascus has no real military option. Actually, no learned study is necessary to realize that the Syrian economy is in deep trouble, the collapse of the Soviet Union left the Syrian military high and dry, and economic progress in Israel and advances in Israeli military and civilian technology have provided the IDF with an overwhelming advantage over the Syrian military. It is the subsequent objections voiced by the IDF's intelligence branch to the Jaffe Center report that should be cause for concern. They are regrettably reminiscent of the exaggerated US intelligence estimates of Soviet military capability right up to the collapse of the Soviet Union. They are a shaky foundation for Barak's Syrian strategy.

The paradox in this situation is that the anticipated US military aid to Syria, after an agreement with Assad has been signed, will redress the military balance between Syria and Israel in Syria's favor - and what is no threat at the present time could turn into a threat in the years to come. This time the threat could be deployed on the Golan Heights overlooking northern Israel. Neither demilitarization nor early-warning devices could prevent that.

In the meantime, Barak is setting his sights on the bounty he expects to receive from the US in return for retreating from the Golan Heights. But there may be some surprises in store for him. The Washington Post has already reported that US Defense Department officials rejected out of hand Israel's request for $17 billion in aid and military equipment, in exchange for signing a peace treaty with Syria. The list of requested items was described by the Pentagon as "grabbing anything in sight." Pentagon officials went on to call it "peace at our expense." But Barak's request for military aid is just the tip of the iceberg. His request for economic assistance is reported to bring the total US compensation that Barak expects for the Golan Heights to $70 billion. All this, before Assad has submitted the Syrian bill to President Clinton. This is not only peace at the expense of the US taxpayer, it is also literally "peace at any price."

The average Israeli might say: "Why not? If Barak can convince Clinton to convince US taxpayers to foot the bill, why should Israel not enjoy the benefits?" But that still leaves the cost to Israel - relinquishing the Golan Heights and forcing 18,000 Israelis to leave their homes. That is a self-inflicted wound that will not heal easily in the years to come. It is a blow to the very foundations on which Israel is built. For that, no amount of monetary compensation will do

Last changed: August 16, 2004

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